A new military-technical analysis by radio technology and communications expert Serhiy Flesh highlights a critical imbalance in the anti-ballistic duel between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. Expert provided calculations regarding the cost, rate of mass production, and accumulated stockpiles of Russian ballistic missiles versus American PAC-3 interceptor missiles for Patriot systems.
Cost and production disparity: PAC-3 vs. Iskander and S-400
According to Serhiy Flesh, the main challenge for protecting Ukrainian cities is not only the technical complexity of intercepting ballistics, but also the unequal economic and industrial capabilities of the parties.
The formula for an anti-ballistic duel in numbers looks like this:
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Economic balance (price): One 9M723 ballistic missile of the Iskander-M complex costs the Russian Federation $2–3 million, an anti-aircraft guided missile of the S-400 complex (which the enemy uses for strikes on a ballistic trajectory) — $1–2 million, and the hypersonic Zircon is estimated at $5 million. At the same time, the cost of one PAC-3 MSE kinetic interceptor missile is at least $4 million. That is, the price of defense is higher than the price of attack.
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Industrial rates (production per month): The aggressor's military-industrial complex is capable of producing about 70 Iskanders, 50 S-400 missiles, and 4 to 7 Zircons per month (a total of up to 125–130 ballistic/aeroballistic weapons per month). In contrast, the current production rate of PAC-3 missiles at Lockheed Martin plants in the US is only 50–60 units per month, which does not even cover the monthly production of enemy missiles.
Stockpiles and Solutions: Licensing and Withdrawal from NATO Reserves
The total accumulated stockpiles of ballistic Iskanders in the Russian Federation are estimated at 200–300 units, while the global stockpile of PAC-3 anti-missiles in NATO member states and allies is about 4–5 thousand units.
Since the current pace of PAC-3 production in the US is physically unable to keep up with the Russian assembly line, Serhiy Flesh emphasizes the only two possible ways to close the ballistic deficit in Ukraine:
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Immediate transfer of missiles from existing Allied stockpiles: Involvement of missiles from the 4-strong global reserve for transfer to the Armed Forces of Ukraine "here and now."
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Deployment of Patriot missile production under license: Launch of licensed production of PAC-3/PAC-2 at the facilities of the European defense industry (in particular, within the framework of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition initiatives).
Comparative matrix of anti-ballistic balance (as of August 2026)
This structure characterizes the key indicators of defense mathematics.
| Missile / Complex indicator | Russian attack weapons ("Iskander-M" / S-400) | Ukrainian Armed Forces / NATO defense equipment (Patriot PAC-3) |
| Approximate cost of 1 rocket | $2–3 million (“Iskander”), $1–2 million (S-400) | At least $4 million for PAC-3 MSE missiles |
| Production rates per month | 70 units ("Iskander") + 50 units. (C-400) + 4-7 ("Zircon") | 50–60 units per month (US factories) |
| Current warehouse stocks | 200–300 units ("Iskander") | 4,000 – 5,000 units (NATO Global Stockpile) |
| Key supply tool | Russia's own military-industrial complex | PURL mechanism ($6,7 billion), withdrawal from allied stocks |
HiTech Expert Take: The Critical Importance of PURL
Serhiy Flesh’s figures on the monthly shortage of PAC-3 missiles directly explain why the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is so actively scaling up the international PURL (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List) program. The attraction of $6,7 billion from 29 partner countries has allowed Ukraine to receive about 95% of all Patriot interceptors directly through this mechanism. Since American factories produce only 50–60 PAC-3s per month, the only source of survival for Ukrainian cities remains the withdrawal of missiles from the existing 5-strong stockpile of NATO countries with financial support from Norway, the Netherlands, and Germany.
The disproportion between the cost of $4 million for the PAC-3 and $2 million for the Iskander requires the parallel development of an asymmetric circuit. Protection from massive raids by the Shahed and reconnaissance wings of the Russian Federation should be completely transferred to cheap domestic AI interceptors Cyclops, Octopus and Shvidun UAVs, codified by the Ministry of Defense. This will allow expensive PAC-3 missiles to be reserved exclusively for the destruction of ballistic Kinzhals and Iskanders, while the domestic defense industry scales up the production of a new sovereign ballistic missile with a 30% lower cost, the tests of which took place in July 2026.
HiTech Expert Analytical Department
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