In fact in the year to 2Q05, according to the Informa Telecoms and Media World Cellular Information Service (WCIS), African operators added 11.72 million subscribers. At end-2Q05, Africa had 101.98 million subscribers, up from 88.27 million at end-1Q05, reflecting a 15.5 per cent rise in the quarter and taking annualised growth to 65.2 per cent by end-June. This compares with a quarterly growth of 10 per cent at end-1Q05. This trend appears set to continue, bearing in mind Africa’s still low penetration and large potential market.
As for who uses what, probably more than any region bar Western Europe, digital mobile in Africa means GSM. Kasapa, the Ghanaian AMPS operator, recently launched CDMA2000 services in Ghana – but that makes it only the third fully mobile CDMA2000 operator, giving a total of just under 300,000 subscribers on the African continent. A mere sprinkling of subscribers, some 41,360, accounts for WCDMA – and these can only be found in South Africa and Mauritius so far. AMPS leads the pack of analogue technologies that together barely reach 66,500 subscribers. For everybody else, mobile means GSM.
On a country-by-country basis there are some striking penetration and growth figures in the continent, but they need to be put in context. For instance, the most highly penetrated markets are Reunion and the Seychelles, both heading for 80 per cent – but both with modest populations and potential. The same could be said of Botswana (nearly 40 per cent), Mauritius (46) and Mayotte (31).
Similarly, one could point to startling growth in Comoros (134.5 per cent to year ending 2Q05), Eritrea (370.18), Guinea-Bissau (376.15) or Libya (211). This, however, is again to highlight countries with small populations or minuscule subscriber bases. Of course, many a smaller market is doing well in terms of both growth and penetration – and few are as promising as Tunisia, the most developed market in north Africa, which continues to outstrip expectations thanks partly to high GDP per capita, stable government, competition and the planned privatisation of state-owned Tunisie Telecom.
Then there is Mauritania. At just under 20 per cent, this country has the highest penetration rate in west Africa. But that means a mere 600,000 or so subscribers. By contrast Nigeria has less than 11 per cent penetration, but this equates to about 14.7 million subscribers at end-2Q05 – and rising (annual growth hit 199 per cent year on year to 2Q05). Meanwhile state-owned operator Nitel is in the process of being privatised along with its highly desirable mobile arm M-TEL, while MTN Nigeria is scheduled to be listed on the Lagos stock exchange. Furthermore, the new licensing regime expected to come into force in Nigeria from February 2006 will enable wireless local loop (WLL) operators to expand their coverage nationwide – and bring a further injection of competition into the market.
In fact the markets to watch remain the same as they have done since Nigeria finally embraced GSM: countries with high population numbers and high potential, like Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco and South Africa.
Algeria’s market grew 21.9 per cent in the last quarter, taking its total subscriber base to 7.7 million, up from 6.4 million at end-1Q05. Soaring annual growth of nearly 200 per cent has been reported and is likely to continue as Algeria’s former operator duopoly of Mobilis and Djezzy responds to competition in the form of new arrival Nedjma. Meanwhile Morocco, the third largest mobile market in Africa, continues to grow, defying predictions of slowdown, as operators target lower income segments.
And then there is South Africa. The highest penetration of any market of genuine substance (nearly 55 per cent and 24 million subscribers) and continuing double-digit growth make this the best performer on the continent.
But other highly populated areas are waiting in the wings. Despite a population only exceeded by Nigeria, Egypt’s growth has been less impressive, in part due to a large low-income population and possibly also to limited competition. Nevertheless there will be tenders for a third operator license next year with that operator (and the two incumbents) being encouraged also to buy a 3G license. The country’s regulator has even hinted that a fourth operator might be viable.
Even tough markets like Sudan are beginning to show promise as the country with the sixth-largest population in Africa finally welcomes a second operator and is predicted to be one of the largest growth markets in coming years.
There is clearly still a lot of potential in this continent. With a mobile penetration level of 10.31 per cent at 2Q 2005 and a great deal of pent-up demand, factors like increased privatisation, more competition and the planned introduction of low-cost handsets are expected by WCIS to propel the region’s subscriber base to 248 million by 2010.
Though greenfield prospects are limited, with most markets already having second and third licensees, for potential investors keen on benefiting from the growing African cellular market, investment opportunities still abound. Outside Nigeria and Tunisia, other state-owned operators lined up for privatisation include Onatel in Burkina Faso, Sotelma in Mali, Algeria Telecom and Benin Telecom.
One of the major names among pan-African operators, Egypt’s Orascom, may have decided to take a step back recently, but others are still pursuing opportunities. In March and April 2005, the investment landscape was altered with the entry of Kuwait-based MTC and UAE-based Etisalat. MTC’s buy-up of controlling stakes in pan-African operator Celtel, with a footprint in 13 markets, and Etisalat’s of Atlantique, with a footprint in 10 markets, was a clear message to the pan-regional players, Vodacom, MTN and Orascom, that they now had major competition on their doorsteps.
However, despite the disappointment of having failed in its bid for Celtel, South Africa’s MTN has enjoyed a recent boost from the purchase of networks in Zambia and Cote d’Ivoire. Meanwhile, Celtel has taken a majority stake in its Tanzanian mobile operation and plans expansion of its Zambian operation. The other names with major stakes in the region include Orange and Portugal Telecom, which has created a new unit to aggregate all the businesses it manages on the African continent – including mobile businesses in Morocco, Cape Verde, Guinea-Bissau and Angola.
Mention of Angola brings us to another, albeit modest, trend – the peace dividend. Growth is, apparently, surging in Angola where the subscriber base has more than doubled and is close to one million. In Sudan much of the expected growth is based on the end of the civil war (albeit it is unclear when or whether the violence in Darfur will abate). Somalia has eight (yes, eight) GSM operators, although this is, in part, a function of limited regulation caused by lack of central government.
Of course much of this growth may be better news for subscribers and the economies of many countries – which some analysts argue can only benefit from communications growth – than for operators. For operators, it’s a matter of making a decent margin out of low ARPU subscribers now that the high-income users have been snapped up.
Another point is that there are still legal, social and regulatory issues that many would-be investors need to overcome, not to mention those thrown up by lack of transparency in government. In our second look at the market (in issue 18), we will look at these factors, along with data, 3G, and further innovations driving growth in Africa.
This article is based on material from Middle East and Africa Wireless Analyst, a research and newsletter service from Informa Telecoms and Media (www.telecoms.com).
